Joe CarsonOct 11, 2023Current CPI Is Flawed, But A "Real-Time" Price Measure Would Be Higher and More Volatile. Critics argue that the current inflation rate is much lower than the published rate. That is true; based on the current methodology,...
Joe CarsonOct 9, 2023Stimulative Power of Fed's New Tools Still Outweighs Drag From Old Ones:Economy's Growth Baffles Fed
Joe CarsonSep 21, 2023Fed Puts "Risk" Back Into Investing: Is a 6% Fed Funds Possible in 2024?Changes to the "forward guidance" of the Fed policy projections put "risk" back into investing. Before the September 19-20 FOMC meeting,...
Joe CarsonSep 18, 2023Monetary Policy At A Crossroad: "Forward Guidance" Has Two Directions For The Policy Rate Path Monetary policy is at a crossroads in what message it wants to send. Forward guidance is the Fed's communication channel about its future...
Joe CarsonSep 13, 2023August CPI Report: Inflation Cycles Are Non-Linear; Rotate; Service Inflation Cycles Hard To Break
Joe CarsonSep 7, 2023Employment Data And GDP Data Don't ComputeThe August employment data and Q3 GDPnow estimates don't compute. In August, payroll employment rose by 187,000, wages rose 0.2%, the...