The budget framework bill passed by the House is deceptive. It is uneven and skewed, ultimately increasing the budget deficit over the next ten years. While politics may rely on public relations, budget frameworks depend on straightforward mathematics, and this one fails to achieve balance.
Budget proposals are evaluated in relation to the budget baseline, which is determined by current tax laws and legislative commitments. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office's budget baseline, the federal budget deficit is expected to total $22 trillion over the coming decade, averaging about $2 trillion annually.
The House budget proposal aims to make the existing tax law permanent, which contradicts the assumptions in the budget baseline. The 2017 tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2025, leading the budget baseline to anticipate increased revenue for the US Treasury. However, extending or permanently implementing the 2017 tax cuts will increase the projected budget deficits by over $4 trillion (or $400 billion a year) over the next decade.
The House budget proposal intends to compensate for this revenue loss by predicting that Congress will manage to cut spending by $1.5 trillion (or $140 billion a year) over the next ten years. The specific spending cuts have not been determined yet.
It's basic math: if you begin with a budget deficit of $2 trillion annually and decrease revenue by $400 billion each year while cutting spending by just $150 billion annually, the yearly deficit will increase. Only politicians might claim this is fiscally responsible, while anyone with basic common sense would see that this budget deal would push the US further into debt.
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